Leprosy in India

Sixth annual Clinic on Meaningful Modeling of Epidemiological Data

June 1-12, 2015, African Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Muizenberg, Cape Town, RSA

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Can we forecast leprosy incidence by district in India?

Things to consider

  • This group is recommended for:
    • all participants
  • This group will have the opportunity to engage in any of the following:
    • conduct longitudinal statistical fitting
    • fit mathematical models of transmission
    • forecast incidence


Leprosy is one of ten diseases targeted for elimination in the London Declaration. It is a bacterial disease caused by a mycobacterium, similar to tuberculosis. It is a slow disease, and most people seem to be intrinsically resistant. One question is whether it can be “eliminated” by 2020, and this is one of the goals of a Gates-funded Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTD) consortium.


  • Data from the Indian leprosy control program are online and have been put into a spreadsheet for us to look at.